Up to 150,000 Australians could die from the coronavirus under the Morrison government’s worst-case scenario, as it considers advice on restricting visits to pubs, cinemas and aged care homes.
Deputy Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly said on Monday that the number of infections would be “somewhere in the range” of 20 per cent to 60 per cent of the population, urging the public to comply with social distancing measures such as avoiding large gatherings of 500 or more people.
“This is an infectious disease,” Professor Kelly said in Canberra. “The more we can do to separate people and stop the disease spreading, the better. The death rate is around 1 per cent. You can do the maths.”
Under the best case scenario of a 20 per cent infection rate, about 50,000 people out of 5 million infected with COVID-19 would die. A moderate scenario of 10 million infections – 40 per cent of the population – would mean 100,000 dead.
In a worst case scenario, 15 million people would get the coronavirus and 150,000 would die.
Professor Kelly said authorities hoped to slow the rise in cases to keep the death rate lower than in other countries.
“Rather than concentrating on numbers, we are focused on preventing a large and rapid rise in cases in the coming weeks and months through thorough and proportionate public health measures,” he said.
A six-hour meeting of all Australia’s chief medical officers in Canberra on Monday night will also consider whether to reduce the 500-person limit set on Friday for all non-essential mass gatherings for enclosed spaces.
“We have been asked to give frank and fearless medical advice from the beginning and that’s what we will continue to do,” he said.